Michael McDonald @ElectProject
Professor at the University of Florida who specializes in American elections. electproject.org Gainesville, FL Joined September 2012-
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#earlyvote evening update 10/19: at least 10.6 million people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/202…
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Maine mail ballot returns are up over 2022 and 2018. Democrats are leading the way in yet another state, although here there are signs of Republican engagement, just not as high of levels as Democrats and unaffiliated voters michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/maine-early-…
There were 3 counties that had in-person early voting today that did not offer it in 2022. They are excluded from the comparison analysis.
A Florida analysis of today's in-person early voting activity compared to 2022 for 31 counties that held in-person early voting on the same number of days before the election. Registered Democrats are leading after a big day of in-person early voting michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/florida-earl…
Here's a Nebraska same-day comparison to 2022. Like other states, early voting turnout is up compared to 2022 (sorry, no 2018 data files for a comparison). Registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters' turnout is up, while Republican is down michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/nebraska-ear…
#earlyvote afternoon update 10/19: at least 10 million people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳🎉 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/202…
Kansas is another state where we are seeing early vote increases over 2022, and where registered Democrats are leading the way. But there is not yet a lot of votes here and some counties haven't offered in-person early voting yet michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/kansas-early…
I updated the trend line posts for Georgia and North Carolina early voting overall and by race. For North Carolina, I updated the party registration charts, including party registration early voting for White Republicans (who are lagging the most) michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/georgia-and-…
#earlyvote afternoon update 10/18: at least 9 million people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳🎉 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/202…
Here's the follow-on race and Hispanic ethnicity #earlyvoting analysis for Georgia and North Carolina, with a bonus breakdown by party registration for North Carolina (spoiler: White Republicans are voting at the lowest levels compared to 2018 and 2022) michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/early-voting…
I've posted an end-of-week analysis of early voting states with reliable party registration data and with past election comparisons, where data are available michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/early-voting…
#earlyvote evening update 10/17: at least 8.8 million people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/202…
Michael McDonald retweeted
THE person to follow on EV.
In my continuing series of #earlyvoting analyses, here is a party registration and race analysis of North Carolina, with a Georgia comparison on race (GA does not have party registration) michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/north-caroli…
In my continuing series of #earlyvoting analyses, here is a party registration and race analysis of North Carolina, with a Georgia comparison on race (GA does not have party registration) michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/north-caroli…
When people ask for the same day comparisons to 2022 and 2018, changing laws is a reason why I reluctant to post that information. You need context to interpret the data properly
Can we compare Colorado to past elections? Well, same-day comparisons are confounded by election officials mailing ballots to domestic voters 10 days earlier this year. I try to make sense of what we can infer michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/colorado?r=c…
I updated the Georgia total #earlyvoting and by race for today's state update, with same day comparisons to 2018 and 2022. Total turnout continues to trend above past midterm elections. Georgia is now at 18.7% of its 2022 turnout michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/georgia-earl…
#earlyvote evening update 10/16: at least 8 million people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳🎉 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/202…
My read: the Iowa early vote supports the polling that Iowa is competitive. But Iowa is not a high volume early voting state, so there is more uncertainty here than in high volume states
Iowa's returned mail ballots are up compared to the same day in 2022, but interestingly the number of mail ballot requests is down. Democrats and no-party affiliates returned more ballots, but unlike NCs, Republican turnout is up, too (just not as much) michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/mail-balloti…
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